Three major forecasters moved more than 60 House, Senate and governor ratings on Oct. 20, almost all toward Democrats. One notable exception went the other way: Cook Political Report shifted Minnesota’s Senate race toward Republicans. New polls found dead heats in the Texas and Maine Senate races. The same day, a little-known polling firm admitted that most of its published numbers were invented.
Background
Our Oct. 18 polling update covered Kansas becoming a Senate toss-up and Cook moving 11 House races. Election Day is Nov. 3. Republicans currently hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority. In the House, Democrats need a net gain of three.
Ratings are expert judgments about which party is favored, not vote-share predictions. Forecasters reach them differently, so they are compared here, not combined.
Senate: Deep South Moves and a Minnesota Exception
Cook moved three Senate races on Oct. 20. South Carolina went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Minnesota went from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic, a move toward Republican Michele Tafoya over Democrat Peggy Flanagan. Cook’s free summary cited candidate quality but gave no race-by-race detail.
In South Carolina, Republican Sen. Darline Graham, appointed after her brother Lindsey Graham’s death in July, faces Democrat Annie Andrews. Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith had been rated safe.
Inside Elections made 30 changes the same day, all toward Democrats. It moved Texas from Tilt Republican to Toss-up, New Hampshire from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic, and South Carolina from Likely to Lean Republican. It also moved Kansas from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican. Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball already rated Kansas a Toss Up, so the three forecasters still disagree there. Inside Elections now projects a Democratic Senate gain of three to five seats.
House: Forecaster Tallies Pass 218
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 28 House races toward Democrats. After the changes, it rates 223 seats at least Leaning Democratic, 200 at least Leaning Republican and 12 as toss-ups. Its moves reached seats like New Jersey’s 2nd District, which Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew won by nearly 17 points in 2024.
Inside Elections’ 22 House changes included open Republican seats in Arizona’s 1st, North Carolina’s 11th and New York’s 21st districts. It projects a Democratic gain of 10 to 20 House seats.
New Polls: Ties in Texas and Maine
The Senate polls moved less than the ratings did. A Fox News poll of Texas (Oct. 15-19, 1,398 likely voters) found Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49%. Fox’s previous Texas poll had Talarico ahead 51% to 49%. Other polls from the same period showed Talarico narrowly ahead, all within their margins of error.
In Maine, Fox found Democrat Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins tied at 49%, according to WGME. The same poll found 62% of Mainers disapproving of President Trump’s job performance.
The Wedgewood Admission
On Oct. 20, Wedgewood Polls, a firm that appeared in June, said most of its data was fabricated. It called the effort an “experimental project to demonstrate the vulnerabilities” of polling, PBS NewsHour reported. The New York Times and the aggregator FiftyPlusOne have removed its polls from their databases. Its polls covered Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan as well as several Senate general-election races.
Who ran the firm, whether it was really an experiment, and which polls were invented all remain unverified.
What Different Sides Are Saying
Republicans: Party officials argue that the polls understate their support. One Republican National Committee official told Politico the polls are “far more pessimistic than the reality is for Republicans.” After the Wedgewood admission, President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson were among the Republican officials who amplified the story. Fact-check: Polls did underestimate Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In the 2022 midterms, though, Democrats beat their polling, which is the pattern Republicans now hope to repeat. Wedgewood shows that fake polls can enter the public record. It does not show that established pollsters are wrong, and removing its polls barely changed the averages.
Democrats: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has promoted each rating change as momentum. It counts 180 shifts in its favor across four forecasters since Labor Day. Fact-check: The direction is clear across Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato. The count comes from a partisan committee, however, and it combines outlets that rate the same races. This article could not verify the total. Cook’s Minnesota move also shows that not every change favors Democrats.
View from Outside the US
International coverage this week focused on presidential approval more than on individual races. Al Jazeera’s explainer led with a Reuters/Ipsos poll putting Trump’s approval at 31%, the lowest of his two terms. The same poll gave Democrats a 12-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among all adults, up from seven points two weeks earlier. It tied the slide to living costs and what it called an unpopular war with Iran. The Reuters/Ipsos figures were widely republished by news outlets in South Korea, Malaysia and elsewhere in Asia.
Note on Scope
This article covers rating changes and selected polls published between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25. Cook’s full race-level reasoning is behind a paywall, and this article could not determine whether any forecaster’s ratings had relied on Wedgewood data. Polls of adults, registered voters and likely voters are not directly comparable.
Related Links
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball: 2026 Rating Changes
- Newsweek: Cook Poll Finds Democrats Ahead in Texas, Ohio and Iowa
- Texas Politics Project: Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Poll Tracker
- Newsweek: Nate Silver Forecast After Fake Polls Removed
- UW Center for an Informed Public: How the Wedgewood Story Spread
- Newsweek: What the Polls Show 10 Days Out
Discussion Questions
- Do you pay more attention to polls or to expert race ratings? Why?
- Why might a forecaster move a race even when new polls show little change?
- What does it mean when a poll shows a race tied at 49% each?
- Why do you think Cook moved Minnesota toward Republicans while moving other races toward Democrats?
- Should news outlets stop reporting polls from new or unknown firms?
- How might the Wedgewood case affect public trust in polling?
- Do you find the argument that polls underestimate Republicans convincing?
- Why do forecasters sometimes disagree about the same race, as they do in Kansas?
- Why do you think the president’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections?
- Imagine you are a news editor. How would you check whether a poll is real before reporting it?
