PA-10 2026: Perry vs. Stelson in a Rematch

This briefing reflects information available as of July 31, 2026. Candidates, polling, endorsements, and campaign positions change quickly. Check current sources before relying on any detail here.

Why This Race Is on Our List

Scott Perry won reelection in 2024 by just over one point in a district Trump carried by five. That gap between his performance and his party’s is the whole race. It is a rematch: Janelle Stelson, the Democrat he narrowly beat, won a contested primary in May and is running again. Cook rates the district a Toss-up and has noted it shifted slightly left since 2024. Pennsylvania Democrats are targeting four Republican-held seats, more pickup opportunities than in any other state, and this is the one they talk about most.

The District

Pennsylvania’s 10th covers Dauphin, Cumberland, and York counties in south-central Pennsylvania, anchored on Harrisburg, the state capital. It mixes a small Democratic-leaning city with substantial Republican suburbs and rural territory.

Perry’s own history here is the relevant context. He was first elected in 2012 in what was then the safely conservative 4th District. Court-ordered redistricting in 2018 placed him in a far more competitive 10th, and he has held it every cycle since, including in 2022 against Shamaine Daniels and in 2024 against Stelson. He has been repeatedly written off and has repeatedly won.

The Candidates

Scott Perry (R) was born in San Diego in 1962, served in the Pennsylvania National Guard from 1980 to 2019, retiring as an assistant adjutant general, and served in the Pennsylvania House from 2007 to 2012. He has been in Congress since 2013 and chaired the House Freedom Caucus. FBI agents seized his phone in 2022 in connection with investigations into the 2020 election; a court later shielded much of his communication with other lawmakers from special counsel Jack Smith. He faced primary challenges in May from Karen Dalton, a self-described moderate who spent 26 years as an attorney for House Republicans, and Josh Hall, and advanced to the general.

Janelle Stelson (D) is a former television news anchor who lost to Perry in 2024 by just over one percentage point. She won the May 19 primary against Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas, a progressive who ran a grassroots campaign. She largely ignored Douglas during the primary, declining several opportunities to debate him, and campaigned against Perry throughout. Campaign site: janellestelson.com.

Isabelle Harman is also listed as running in the general election.

Top Issues

Healthcare and Medicaid. This is Stelson’s central line of attack. She has said Perry cast a deciding vote for what she calls the largest Medicaid cuts in history and puts the local figure at roughly 20,000 people in central Pennsylvania. Perry’s supporters frame the same legislation as spending restraint and tax relief.

Cost of living. Stelson’s stated priorities include lowering costs, protecting Social Security and Medicare, abortion rights, and border security, a deliberately broad list that includes at least one issue usually associated with Republicans.

Perry’s record on the 2020 election. This was central in 2024 and Perry survived it. Whether it retains force in a midterm with a different electorate is untested.

Trade and tariffs. This surfaced in the Democratic primary, where Douglas called for rebalancing trade policy rather than full repeal, indicating some intra-party disagreement about how far to go.

Evidence Check

Stelson: Perry cast “the deciding vote” for the Medicaid cuts. The characterization is not verifiable as stated. In a narrow House majority many members can be described as decisive, and no single vote is uniquely so unless the margin was one. We could not confirm the final margin, so we are flagging the phrasing rather than the substance. That the legislation reduced Medicaid spending is not in dispute; both sides agree on that and disagree about whether it was good policy.

Stelson: 20,000 people in central Pennsylvania lose Medicaid coverage. We were not able to independently verify this district-level figure or trace it to a published source. The statewide claim circulating alongside it, that three million Pennsylvanians are at risk of losing health insurance, comes from Republicans Against Perry, an anti-Perry organization, and should be treated as an advocacy estimate rather than an established count.

Perry: Stelson is a “carpetbagging, racist, tax hiker.” The residency element refers to a documented dispute, echoed by the NRCC, over whether Stelson lives in the district. The other two terms are pejoratives rather than checkable claims, and we found no substantiation offered alongside them. We are reporting the statement because he made it publicly, not because any part of it is established.

The November 2025 PPP poll showing Perry down seven. This survey of 549 voters, conducted November 18 to 19, showed Perry trailing a generic Democratic opponent by seven and carrying a net minus 17 approval rating. Two things should be stated plainly: Public Policy Polling is a Democratic-affiliated firm, and the poll was commissioned by Republicans Against Perry, a group organized to defeat him. It was also taken against an unnamed opponent, which typically produces worse numbers for an incumbent than a named matchup. Treat it as a directional signal from an interested party.

The Data for Progress poll showing Stelson up three. Conducted for House Majority PAC, a Democratic organization, by a left-leaning firm. It showed Stelson at 46 and Perry at 43. Same caution applies. We located no independent, non-partisan public poll of this race.

Perry’s resilience is the strongest counter-evidence to all of it. He has been rated vulnerable in every cycle since 2018 and has won every time, including in 2024 while polls suggested trouble.

How This Race Is Being Framed

As a rematch with a smaller gap to close. Stelson lost by roughly one point and has consolidated support earlier this time. Republicans counter that she has already been rejected once. NRCC spokesperson Maureen O’Toole called her a “certified loser” who does not live in the district.

As a referendum on Perry’s national profile. Gov. Josh Shapiro, campaigning for Democrats, said Perry “does whatever Donald Trump tells him to.” The DCCC says Perry has “never been more vulnerable.” This frame has been tried before here without success.

As a healthcare election. This is the newest element and the one most different from 2024, since the Medicaid changes had not yet happened then.

As a moderate-versus-progressive question inside the Democratic Party. The primary between Stelson, a well-funded moderate, and Douglas, a progressive grassroots candidate, was described locally as a contest between two factions. Stelson won, and how that affects turnout among Douglas voters is an open question.

Discussion Questions

Should a candidate have to live in the district they represent?
Does losing a race by one point make someone a stronger or weaker candidate next time?
How much should a poll commissioned by a group trying to defeat someone be trusted?
Is it fair to keep raising a candidate’s role in the 2020 election six years later?
Perry has been called vulnerable every cycle since 2018 and keeps winning. What does that tell you?
Should a primary winner owe anything to the voters who backed their opponent?
Why might a district vote for a president of one party and a representative of the other?
Is “deciding vote” a fair way to describe one member’s vote in a close chamber?
What would change your mind about a candidate you have already voted against?
Imagine you are a Harrisburg-area independent who split your ticket in 2024. What decides your vote?

PA-10: Perry vs. Stelson in a One-Point Rematch