Why This Race Matters
This overview reflects information available as of September 4, 2026. Candidates, polling, and endorsements may change before Election Day on November 3.
North Carolina’s 1st District is the state’s only toss-up House race, and it exists in its current form because Republican state lawmakers redrew it in 2025 specifically to make it harder for Democratic Rep. Don Davis to win. The new map shifted the district from one Trump carried with about 51% of the vote in 2024 to one where a generic Republican candidate would have cleared 55%. Mid-decade redistricting aimed at a single incumbent is not unique to the United States; in mixed electoral systems elsewhere, ruling parties have redrawn boundaries between scheduled elections for similar tactical reasons, though the practice is more constrained in most other democracies than it currently is in several U.S. states.
The Race
This is a rematch of 2024, when Davis defeated Republican Laurie Buckhout by less than 2 points, 49.5% to 47.8%, with Libertarian Tom Bailey drawing the remaining 2.6%. Davis chose to run again in the redrawn district rather than seek a safer seat, saying the fight over redistricting was itself a reason to stay. Buckhout won this year’s five-candidate Republican primary outright, avoiding a runoff, after outside groups and the National Republican Congressional Committee invested heavily on her behalf through its “MAGA Majority” program. Bailey is on the ballot again as the Libertarian nominee.
The district is almost entirely rural, spanning roughly 25 counties in northeastern North Carolina with no large city; Rocky Mount, its biggest, has about 54,000 people. The 2024 matchup between Davis and Buckhout was the state’s most expensive House race that cycle, and both parties expect this rematch to be similarly costly.
The Candidates
Don Davis (Democrat, incumbent) sits on the House Agriculture Committee, where he is ranking member of the rural development subcommittee, and belongs to the centrist New Democrat Coalition and Problem Solvers Caucus. He has made restoring emergency care after the 2023 closure of Martin General Hospital a signature issue and voted against the 2025 federal reconciliation bill over its Medicaid cuts.
Laurie Buckhout (Republican) is a retired Army colonel and Iraq War veteran who founded a cybersecurity consulting firm, sold it for a reported $9 million in 2019, and later served in the Trump administration on cyber policy before launching her campaign. She has criticized Davis for voting against the 2025 reconciliation bill despite its inclusion of a $50 billion rural health fund.
Tom Bailey (Libertarian) is running again after taking 2.6% of the vote in 2024. Some analysts believe his presence in the race modestly helped Davis last time by drawing votes that might otherwise have gone to Buckhout, though we could not confirm how those voters would have split had he not been on the ballot.
Top Issues
Rural hospital access is the defining local issue, centered on Martin General Hospital, whose 2023 closure left roughly 21,000 people without nearby emergency care. Davis has introduced legislation to help facilities like it reopen as federally designated Rural Emergency Hospitals and has called the 2025 law’s rural health fund insufficient to offset its broader Medicaid cuts. Buckhout counters that Davis voted against the same bill that created that $50 billion fund, arguing eastern North Carolina needs the money regardless of the bill’s other provisions.
Agriculture is also central given the district’s tobacco farming base, an area where Davis has cited export disruptions tied to trade tensions with China. Buckhout has campaigned on border security, fentanyl, and the broader economy, themes similar to her 2024 run.
Evidence Check
Buckhout’s spokesperson said Davis opposed funding meant to help communities like Martin County after its hospital closed; this refers to Davis’s vote against the full 2025 reconciliation bill, which did include a rural health fund alongside deep Medicaid cuts. Both halves of that claim, the rural fund’s existence and Davis’s no vote, check out, though the framing omits Davis’s stated reason for opposing the broader bill.
Cardinal Pine’s profile of the race reported that Buckhout was arrested for DUI in Georgia during her 2024 campaign, with an initial breathalyzer refusal and a later test showing a blood alcohol level of 0.088, above the state’s 0.08 legal limit; the charge was reduced to reckless driving in a plea deal. We did not independently verify the arrest record beyond this reporting.
Supporter Voices
Buckhout has drawn national Republican surrogates to the district; she appeared alongside Vice President JD Vance in Rocky Mount in March, where she said of Davis, “Those of us who have been held accountable, expect it.” Davis’s endorsers include VoteVets, the North Carolina AFL-CIO, and the state’s Association of Educators, reflecting institutional labor and veterans’ support more than individual constituent quotes at this stage of the race.
How This Race Is Being Framed
National forecasters have described a Davis win as an ironic outcome given that the new map was drawn specifically to defeat him, since he has now won competitive races under multiple district configurations. Republican-aligned coverage instead frames the redraw as a legitimate response to a district that already leans Republican at the presidential level, and points to national GOP investment in Buckhout as a sign the party expects the new map to work as intended. Both sides treat the race as a genuine toss-up rather than a formality in either direction.
