NH Senate 2026: Sununu vs. Pappas Race Profile

Race status as of September 10, 2026. Polling and campaign finance figures in this race change frequently.

Why this race is on our list

A former senator is trying to reclaim the seat he lost nearly two decades ago, in a state where his own brother was governor for eight years. Both parties’ nominees won their September 8 primaries by wide margins, but the general election polling since has been close enough that neither side can afford to look away. It is also a rare case of a Republican Senate nominee actively distancing himself from the president who endorsed him.

New Hampshire: the state behind the race

New Hampshire backed Kamala Harris over Trump by about three points in 2024, even as Republicans have held a trifecta in state government since 2021. Both of the state’s current US Senate seats are held by Democrats, Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, and this seat is open because Shaheen chose not to seek a fourth term.

Roughly 40 percent of New Hampshire voters are registered independents (called “undeclared” in the state), which makes the state’s electorate harder to predict from party registration alone. As of July 2026, Trump’s approval rating in the state had fallen to 37 percent, with 62 percent disapproving, and a June 2026 poll found nearly two-thirds of Granite Staters said going to war with Iran was the wrong decision. Democrats held a 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot in that same period.

The candidates

John E. Sununu (R). Age 61, from a family synonymous with New Hampshire Republican politics: his father, John H. Sununu, was governor and later White House chief of staff, and his brother Chris Sununu served as governor for eight years until stepping down in 2025. John Sununu served one term in the US Senate from 2003 to 2009 before losing his re-election bid to Shaheen. He has spent the years since largely out of public office. He won the September 8 primary over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, 69.1 percent to 25.6 percent. Trump endorsed him in February 2026, calling him an “America First Patriot,” a notable turn given that Sununu backed John Kasich over Trump in 2016 and Nikki Haley in 2024. Since the primary, Sununu has publicly broken with Trump on the Iran war and offered criticism of tariffs on imported building materials, while focusing most of his fire on Pappas.

Chris Pappas (D). Age 46, has represented New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District since 2019 and is a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. He entered the race as the clear Democratic frontrunner, backed by Shaheen, Hassan, Elizabeth Warren, and (during the primary) Kamala Harris. He defeated Karishma Manzur, a scientist running as a Democratic Socialist, 62.5 percent to 35.4 percent. Pappas has made anti-corruption his central theme, saying he refuses corporate PAC money, and has framed the race around tying Sununu to Trump’s tariffs, health care policy, and the Iran war.

What the campaigns are contesting

Sununu is running a campaign that is unusually quiet about the president who endorsed him. His argument to voters is that Trump and national Republicans are not on the ballot, but he is, and that voters should judge him on his own record rather than on Washington. He has attacked Pappas as someone who “votes almost exclusively with leaders in his party” and favors higher taxes.

Pappas is trying to nationalize the race, arguing a vote for Sununu is effectively a vote for Trump’s agenda on tariffs, health care, and foreign policy. His campaign has also attacked Sununu’s post-Senate career in the private sector as evidence of ties to corporate interests.

Evidence check

Not a full fact check. Two recurring claims, one from each side, with context.

“Sununu gave huge tax breaks to pharma companies and sided with the insurance industry, and then he went to work for them and made $35 million.” This is a claim from a Pappas campaign ad referring to Sununu’s Senate voting record and his subsequent private-sector career. We could not independently verify the $35 million figure or confirm which specific pharmaceutical or insurance-industry roles the ad is referencing from the sourcing available to us. This should be treated as an unverified campaign claim rather than a confirmed fact.

“Pappas gave out tax breaks to New Yorkers for their million-dollar homes.” This claim, from the GOP-aligned group One Nation, refers to Pappas’s 2021 vote for a broader climate and social safety net package that included raising the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions. It is true that a higher SALT cap disproportionately benefits higher earners in high-tax states like New York, and that Pappas voted for the package containing it. Characterizing this as specifically providing “tax breaks to New Yorkers for million-dollar homes” is a rhetorical simplification of a broader, multi-provision bill rather than a standalone tax policy aimed at that group.

Note on scope: An unrelated 2025 hypothetical poll showing a large lead for “Sununu” over Pappas was measuring Chris Sununu, the former governor, before he declined to enter the race in April 2025. It does not reflect current polling of John Sununu, the actual Republican nominee, and should not be confused with it.

What supporters and undecided voters are saying

Detailed on-the-record voter reaction specific to this race was limited in the sourcing available to us at this stage of the campaign. Reporting from New Hampshire Public Radio notes that Sununu’s name recognition and his brother’s popularity as governor are widely credited with his primary win and early general election standing, while a political scientist quoted in that coverage cautioned that once voters are “reacquainted” with John Sununu himself after nearly two decades out of office, that advantage could narrow.

How this race is being framed

National coverage largely frames this as a race Republicans should be struggling to win, given Trump’s sagging approval and the unpopularity of the Iran war and tariffs in the state, and credits Sununu’s standing mainly to his family name and his visible distance from the president. A Boston Globe analysis put Sununu narrowly ahead of Pappas, 45 percent to 43 percent, within the margin of error. New Hampshire coverage places more emphasis on the state’s large bloc of undeclared voters and on whether Pappas’s moderate, anti-corruption message can hold up against a well-known local surname.

Discussion Questions

Does a well-known family name make you more or less likely to trust a candidate you haven’t seen in office in years?
Sununu accepted Trump’s endorsement but has publicly disagreed with him on Iran and tariffs. Is that a strength or a contradiction?
Pappas is trying to tie Sununu to the national party. Should Senate races be decided on local records or national politics?
Have you or has your family been affected by tariffs on building materials or housing costs?
What does it mean for a state’s politics when 40 percent of voters register as independents?
Do you find the pharma-industry claim against Sununu or the SALT-deduction claim against Pappas more persuasive?
Why might a Republican candidate try to distance himself from an unpopular president rather than run alongside him?
How much should a candidate’s family history in politics factor into your vote?
What would it take to convince an undecided New Hampshire voter in this race?
Imagine you are a debate moderator. What is the first question you would ask each candidate?

New Hampshire Senate 2026: Sununu vs. Pappas