Race ratings in several Republican-held contests have moved toward Democrats since October 6, with the biggest changes in the Midwest and Mountain West. Kansas’s Senate race is now a Toss Up, Alaska’s governor’s race leans Democratic, and Montana’s open House seat is a Toss Up. On October 16, Cook Political Report moved 11 races toward Democrats. Public polls show Democrats ahead in Texas and Ohio, but Kansas and Iowa remain inside the margin of error.
Background
Ratings and polls measure different things. A poll estimates voter preferences at one moment and carries a margin of error. A rating is an analyst’s judgment that also weighs candidate quality, money, district partisanship and the national mood, so a rating can move without a new poll.
Cook’s October 6 update put Democratic Senate gains at two to six seats, as Mediaite reported. Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority.
Kansas Senate: a toss-up with no clear leader
Cook moved Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up on October 6. Sabato’s Crystal Ball followed on October 14, and three recent polls reported by Newsweek show Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. YouGov (September 24 to October 4) had Hamilton up 48% to 45%, InsiderAdvantage (October 9 and 10) had him up 47.5% to 46.7%, and Trafalgar (September 29 to October 1) had him up 44.4% to 43.5%. Libertarian David Graham drew between 2% and 3.4% in the last two, which matters in a race this close.
A New York Times/Siena survey fielded September 21 to October 1 found the race tied, with a 4.6-point margin of error. Each Hamilton lead above is within its own poll’s margin of error (2.8 to 3.2 points), so no one has broken away.
Beyond Kansas: Democratic leads in Texas, Ohio and Alaska
The same Times/Siena poll had Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by six points in Texas, and Democrat Mary Peltola ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan by seven in Alaska. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown led Sen. Jon Husted by three points, inside a 4.5-point margin of error. In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson led Democrat Josh Turek by one. This article could not locate state-level sample sizes or margins of error for the Texas and Alaska results.
A poll lead does not automatically change a rating. Cook’s October 6 table still lists Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as Toss Ups. Its other recent Senate changes ran toward Democrats: New Hampshire moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and North Carolina from Lean to Likely Democratic on October 6, and Georgia from Lean to Likely Democratic on September 23.
House: Montana joins the toss-ups
Only one of Cook’s 11 House changes created a new Toss Up. In Montana’s open 1st District, previously held by Republican Ryan Zinke, Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up even though Donald Trump carried the district by 12 points. The Epoch Times reported that Cook cited recent private polls showing Forstag ahead and a Democratic super PAC campaign tying Flint to data centers. This article could not review those private polls.
The other changes were smaller steps. Five seats moved from Likely to Lean Republican (Ohio’s 10th and 15th, Minnesota’s 1st, New York’s 21st and South Carolina’s 1st), and three from Solid to Likely Republican (Nebraska’s 1st, Florida’s 16th and Kansas’s 2nd). Florida’s 25th moved from Toss Up to Lean Democratic, and Ohio’s 1st from Lean to Likely Democratic. Cook said half of the changes were in Ohio, Nebraska and Kansas.
The evidence conflicts in some districts. In New York’s 21st, a Siena College poll had Democrat Blake Gendebien ahead 46% to 42%, while other polling shows Republican Anthony Constantino narrowly ahead.
Alaska governor: a Democratic lean built on a split opposition
Cook moved Alaska’s open governor’s race from Toss Up to Lean Democratic on October 13. Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the only Democrat left in a four-person field, while Republicans Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor all remain in the race. In a September AARP-sponsored poll of 800 likely voters, he had 40% in the first round and led Wilson by 10 points in the final ranked-choice round. Eighteen percent were undecided, and those voters favored Trump by more than 30 points, which leaves room for the race to tighten.
What Different Sides Are Saying
The national environment is hurting Republicans. Cook’s Jessica Taylor said Trump is “a drag across the board even in deep red states,” citing fuel prices and the cost of living. Fact-check: That is an analyst’s judgment, not a measurement. The one approval figure this article could verify is from the Alaska poll, where 53% disapproved of Trump’s job performance, and that covers a single state.
Republicans still hold structural advantages. Cook noted that Republicans keep a financial edge in most competitive states, and the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, bought seven-figure ad time in Kansas to help Marshall. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and the prediction market Polymarket gave Marshall about a 63% chance as of October 14. Fact-check: A betting market is not a poll and reflects traders’ expectations. This article could not verify the fundraising figures behind Cook’s money claim, and could not locate an on-record response from the Marshall campaign or the National Republican Senatorial Committee to the rating changes.
View from Outside the US
A Channel 4 News podcast episode from the UK, published October 14, featured Lakshya Jain of the Split Ticket forecasting platform. His model gives Democrats an 89% chance of retaking the House and a 65% chance of winning the Senate. The host also asked whether forecasts like these could be underestimating the Republican vote. A model forecast is a probability built from polls and other inputs, not a poll itself.
Note on Scope
This article covers rating changes and public polling reported through October 17, 2026, and not every race Cook and Sabato rate. Cook’s full analyses are paywalled, so details come from its public ratings tables and secondary reports. This article could not read Sabato’s October 14 write-up of its Senate changes and could not confirm the old and new ratings for other governor’s races Cook reportedly moved on October 13. Accounts of the Times/Siena Kansas result differ slightly, one describing a tie and another a one-point Marshall lead. Ratings and polls can change before Election Day on November 3.
Related Links
- Cook Political Report: Eleven More House Races Shift Toward Democrats
- Cook Political Report: Three Senate Races Move Toward Dems, Including Kansas
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Five Senate Rating Changes
- Cook Political Report: House Race Ratings
- Cook Political Report: Senate Race Ratings
- Axios Kansas City: Kansas Senate Voter Guide
- Alaska Public Media: Poll on Alaska Governor’s Race
Discussion Questions
- Do you follow election polls closely? If so, how much do they shape what you expect to happen?
- Why might a forecaster change a rating without a new poll?
- Is a one-point lead in a poll with a four-point margin of error meaningful? Why or why not?
- Does it matter whether a poll is public or private when a forecaster cites it?
- Why might a long-held safe seat like Kansas’s Senate seat become competitive?
- Should prediction markets be treated like polls, forecasts, or something else?
- How might a third-party candidate polling 2% to 4% affect a close race?
- Why do forecasters sometimes disagree with each other about the same race?
- How should voters weigh a forecast that says one party is likely to win?
- Imagine you are a news editor. How would you report a poll that shows a tie without overstating it?
