Alaska Senate 2026: Sullivan vs. Peltola Briefing

August 21, 2026.

Why This Race Is on Our List

Cook Political Report moved this race from Leans Republican to Toss-up on July 1. Alaska has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2015 and has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, which makes a toss-up rating unusual on its own.

Two other things make it worth a briefing. The Democratic challenger has outraised a two-term incumbent by a wide margin. And the race will be decided by ranked-choice voting, a system Alaska voters will simultaneously be asked whether to repeal.

The State and Its Voting System

Alaska uses a top-four primary. All candidates appear on one ballot regardless of party, and the four highest finishers advance. The general election is then decided by ranked-choice voting: voters rank candidates in order, and if nobody wins a majority of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their ballots redistributed to each voter’s next choice, repeating until someone has a majority.

This matters more here than the mechanics suggest. A candidate can lead the first round and still lose, which is what happened in the 2022 House special election. It also means a candidate needs to be acceptable as a second choice to voters who prefer someone else, which changes how campaigns behave.

The system is unusual in the United States and ordinary elsewhere. Australia has used instant-runoff voting for its House of Representatives for more than a century, and Ireland uses it to elect its president. Readers outside the United States often find Alaska’s arrangement more familiar than Americans do.

Alaska adopted it by ballot measure in 2020. A measure to repeal ranked-choice voting, the nonpartisan primary, and enhanced campaign finance disclosure is expected on the November ballot. A separate measure would impose contribution limits on state and local campaigns, after a 2021 federal court ruling removed them.

Turnout in the August 18 primary was 22.21 percent, with 133,684 ballots cast out of 601,906 registered voters.

The Candidates

Dan Sullivan (R) has served in the Senate since 2014, when he defeated Democratic incumbent Mark Begich 48 percent to 46 percent. He won reelection in 2020 with 54 percent, a 13-point margin. He was previously Alaska’s attorney general and commissioner of natural resources. Trump has endorsed him. On primary night he pointed to federal funding he has directed to the Coast Guard, the military, and North Slope oil and gas development, and to his support for the tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. He led the primary field with 42.72 percent.

Mary Peltola (D) won a 2022 special election to succeed Rep. Don Young, defeating Sarah Palin and Nick Begich in Alaska’s first statewide ranked-choice election. She won a full term later that year and lost in 2024 to Begich. She is the only Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008. She entered this race in January 2026 and reported raising $1.5 million in her first 24 hours.

Two other candidates advanced. We have not been able to confirm which two from the unofficial returns available at the time of writing, and counting continues through August 28. Under ranked-choice voting these candidates can matter more than their vote share suggests, because where their supporters place their second preferences may decide the outcome.

A complicating detail worth knowing: another Dan Sullivan, a former Anchorage mayor, has appeared on Alaska ballots, and voter confusion between the two has been raised as a live consideration.

Money, and Who Has It

The fundraising picture is unusual and runs against the state’s partisanship. Peltola has raised roughly $18.5 million for the campaign against roughly $11.7 million for Sullivan. That is a substantial advantage for a Democratic challenger in a state this Republican, and it reflects national attention to a race that could affect Senate control.

Cash on hand runs the other way. As of July 29, Sullivan had roughly $7.3 million available against roughly $4.6 million for Peltola. She has raised more and spent more.

Sullivan’s fundraising has a feature worth noting. He received more than $720,000 in transfers from other committees at one point, over half from a committee called Sullivan Victory that raises primarily from residents of Ohio, where he grew up, along with California, Florida, and Texas. Both candidates depend substantially on out-of-state money.

Outside groups are also active. Majority Forward, a progressive nonprofit, has run ads against Sullivan over his vote for the administration’s tax and spending bill, as part of a campaign also targeting Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina. Reporting before the primary indicated millions in outside money was being spent on candidates other than the two frontrunners, generally with the aim of weakening one of them, which is a strategy the top-four format makes possible.

Top Issues

Resource development is Sullivan’s central record, and his primary night remarks led with it: federal money for the Coast Guard and the military, and North Slope oil and gas. In Alaska this is closer to a consensus position than a partisan one, which limits how much distance a challenger can create.

Fisheries is Peltola’s signature area from her House tenure, where she built a reputation for working across party lines. It is also the basis of her appeal in western and rural Alaska.

Sullivan supported the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and Majority Forward’s ads target that vote. Reporting has not established which specific provisions are at issue in Alaska.

We did not locate recent independent Alaska issue polling. That is a gap, and it means the issue emphasis described here comes from what the campaigns are saying rather than from what voters have been asked.

Evidence Check

On the toss-up rating, the underlying case is that Peltola has won statewide before, has money, and that ranked-choice voting has historically produced Alaska results that partisan lean alone would not predict. The counterargument is straightforward: Sullivan won his last race by 13 points, Alaska has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Peltola lost her most recent race.

On the claim that she is the only Democrat to win statewide since 2008: accurate as stated and worth reading carefully. It establishes that Peltola can win in Alaska. It also establishes how rarely any Democrat does.

On the 2022 comparison, Peltola earned almost 51 percent in that year’s pick-one primary, outpacing all Republican candidates combined, then won the general election. In 2024 the result flipped and Begich defeated her. Both are relevant. Neither predicts this race, which has a different opponent and a midterm electorate.

On the primary result as a signal, Sullivan took 42.72 percent in a field of many candidates. Primary vote share in a top-four system is a weak predictor of general election performance, because voters have no reason to consolidate and because the general election uses a different method entirely. We would caution against reading much into it in either direction.

On the repeal measure: if it passes in November, it would not change how this race is counted, since the election and the measure are decided at the same time. It does mean voters may be ranking candidates on the same ballot where they vote to abolish ranking. We have seen no polling on the measure.

How This Race Is Being Framed

As a Senate control race. With 53 Republican seats, Democrats need an unusually wide map. Alaska is on it because of Peltola specifically, not because the state has moved.

As a test of ranked-choice voting itself. Republicans have argued since 2022 that the system produced a Democratic House member in a Republican state. Supporters argue it produced the candidate most Alaskans found acceptable. Both descriptions fit the 2022 result, and the repeal measure puts the argument directly to voters.

As incumbency versus a personal brand. Sullivan has two terms, an endorsement, and institutional support. Peltola has a demonstrated ability to win Alaskans who do not vote for Democrats generally. Which matters more in a midterm is untested.

As a family story. The Begich name appears on both sides of Alaska politics: Sullivan beat Mark Begich in 2014, Peltola lost to Nick Begich III in 2024, and Tom Begich, Mark’s brother and Nick’s uncle, is running for governor as a Democrat. On primary day Nick Begich and Sullivan’s wife waved signs at the same Anchorage intersection where Tom Begich was rallying on the opposite side of the street. It is a small state.

Discussion Questions

Should the candidate with the most first-choice votes always win?
What does it mean to be someone’s second choice in an election?
Would ranking candidates change how you think about your vote?
Australia and Ireland have used this system for decades. Why is it contested here?
Should a state be able to change its voting system by ballot measure?
Is it a problem that both candidates rely heavily on out-of-state money?
Why might a state that votes Republican for president elect a Democrat to one office?
Should outside groups be able to fund candidates in order to weaken someone else?
What responsibility does a state have when two candidates share a name?
Imagine you are an Alaskan who dislikes both frontrunners. How do you fill out your ballot?

Alaska Senate 2026: Sullivan vs. Peltola Under Ranked Choice