Michigan Senate: Rogers vs. El-Sayed

This briefing reflects reporting and polling available as of Aug. 29, 2026. Candidates, endorsements and polling can change before Election Day on Nov. 3, 2026.

Why This Race Matters

Michigan’s open Senate seat is one of a handful of races that will decide which party controls the chamber. It pits a former FBI agent and congressman making his second run for the seat against a physician who could become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate. Beyond the numbers, the race has become a national flashpoint over campaign rhetoric, with an unusually intense wave of attacks tying the Democratic nominee to terrorism, alongside a substantive fight over data centers, utility bills and healthcare that mirrors debates playing out in several swing states this cycle.

The Race

Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is retiring, leaving the seat open for the first time in over a decade. Michigan voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2024 while also electing Democratic senators, and its manufacturing-heavy economy makes it especially sensitive to tariffs, gas prices and auto industry news. Republican Mike Rogers won his primary unopposed. Abdul El-Sayed narrowly won a competitive three-way Democratic primary over Rep. Haley Stevens, 48.5% to 47.5%, after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign in July.

Public polling since the primary has been unusually inconsistent for a single race. An AARP-commissioned poll in mid-August found El-Sayed ahead 48% to 47%, effectively a tie. A Susquehanna Polling survey around the same time showed El-Sayed leading by a wider 46% to 39%. A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6 to 10 found the opposite, with Rogers ahead 51% to 47%. Polling averages compiled by outlets like RealClearPolling and Decision Desk HQ have generally shown a margin of a few points in either direction, underscoring that this remains a genuine toss-up rather than a race with a clear frontrunner.

The Candidates

Mike Rogers (R), 63, was born in Livingston County, Michigan, served in the U.S. Army from 1985 to 1989, then worked as an FBI special agent before representing Michigan’s 8th District in the U.S. House from 2001 to 2015, where he chaired the House Intelligence Committee. He lost a close 2024 Senate race to then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin by 0.34 percentage points and is running again with President Trump’s endorsement. During his time in Congress, Rogers consistently voted for abortion restrictions, cosponsored legislation that would have required the FDA to withdraw approval of a medication abortion drug, and supported introducing private-sector mechanisms into Medicare along the lines of the House’s 2011 “Ryan Plan.” His 2026 campaign centers on enforcement-first immigration policy, opposition to expanding the Affordable Care Act, and the national-security background he frequently invokes on the trail.

Abdul El-Sayed (D) is a physician and former Wayne County health director who previously ran for Michigan governor in 2018, losing the Democratic primary to Gretchen Whitmer. Announcing his Senate bid, he said Michiganders need “an economy that works for them, guaranteed healthcare, clean air and water” and affordable housing. He has campaigned on a Medicare for All-style public option open to any age, government negotiation of prescription drug prices, and codifying abortion and contraception access into federal law. He is an outspoken critic of the Israeli government’s policies and opposes unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel, positions that have drawn both support and criticism, including from some Jewish voters in the state; El-Sayed has said his commitment to Jewish safety is the same as his commitment to his own daughters’ safety. Ballotpedia lists several minor-party and independent candidates on the November ballot; none has polled at or near 5% in the surveys reviewed for this briefing.

Top Issues

Data centers and utility costs. Both candidates have shifted toward more skeptical positions on data center construction as utility bills have become a flashpoint statewide. El-Sayed has called for data centers to cover their own power and water costs and give local communities a meaningful say, after previously saying Michigan should wait for federal guardrails before allowing more projects. Rogers, after previously supporting data center construction, called for a one-year statewide moratorium.

Healthcare. El-Sayed backs a Medicare for All-style public option and government negotiation of drug prices. Rogers has historically opposed expanding the Affordable Care Act and supported private-sector mechanisms in Medicare and Social Security, though his 2026 campaign has emphasized prescription drug costs rather than structural changes to either program.

Abortion. El-Sayed supports codifying abortion and contraception access into federal law. Rogers says he will not try to undo Michigan’s 2022 constitutional protections for abortion, a public position that sits alongside a congressional voting record of consistent support for abortion restrictions between 2001 and 2015, including cosponsoring legislation that would have defined life at conception.

Economy and tariffs. Michigan’s auto-heavy economy has made gas prices and tariff impacts a live issue. Rogers drew criticism after downplaying the effect of Middle East conflict on gas prices in an audio clip obtained by Punchbowl News, saying “we’re gonna be fine, we got plenty of oil,” a comment Democrats have used to paint him as out of touch with Michiganders facing an economic squeeze.

Campaign tone. Coverage of this race has been dominated by an extraordinarily aggressive attack campaign against El-Sayed since his primary win, addressed directly in the evidence check below. Multiple outlets and Michigan officials have said this has crowded out substantive debate on pocketbook issues, even though cost of living remains a top concern in most Michigan polling this cycle; this briefing could not locate a Michigan-specific poll ranking voter priorities to confirm how large that gap is.

Evidence Check

Claim (Rogers and allied groups): El-Sayed “pledged his support” to the Muslim Brotherhood. Check: the claim traces to a 2011 essay El-Sayed wrote supporting Egyptian pro-democracy protesters against then-President Hosni Mubarak. Fact-checking analysis by the Detroit Metro Times found no evidence El-Sayed has expressed support for the Muslim Brotherhood as an organization; the essay argued for democratic self-determination generally, not for any specific Islamist movement.

Claim (Rogers): Rogers said he never expected to run against “someone who believes America deserved 9/11.” Check: that view was expressed by Hasan Piker, a political commentator El-Sayed has some association with, not by El-Sayed himself. This article found no instance of El-Sayed making that statement; attributing an associate’s remark directly to the candidate is a mischaracterization.

Claim (El-Sayed allies and Michigan Democrats): Rogers is a carpetbagger who does not actually live in Michigan. Check: Rogers was born and began his political career in Michigan, but reporting during his 2024 campaign identified a primary residence in Florida, a residency question that has resurfaced this cycle. This article could not independently confirm his current legal residence as of publication.

Claim (Rogers): El-Sayed wants to empty prisons and let violent offenders back onto Michigan streets. This article could not verify this characterization against a specific criminal justice policy proposal from El-Sayed’s campaign, and could not locate a primary-source policy document supporting or contradicting it.

Supporter Voices

Sourced, on-the-record supporter quotes were harder to find for this race than for most; national coverage has focused heavily on campaign rhetoric and polling rather than voter interviews. What is available: Rogers has assembled a “Democrats for Mike Rogers” coalition, including state Rep. Karen Whitsett, who has argued El-Sayed’s healthcare platform would put existing coverage at risk. On the El-Sayed side, the Michigan chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations has been a prominent public voice condemning the attacks against him, though as an advocacy organization rather than a campaign supporter in the traditional sense. This briefing could not locate comparably sourced quotes from undecided Michigan voters in the reporting reviewed.

How This Race Is Being Framed

Rogers and national Republicans have framed the choice as, in his words, “common sense or complete insanity,” casting El-Sayed as an extremist outside Michigan’s mainstream. El-Sayed and Democrats have framed Rogers as an out-of-touch former Washington insider who profited from the revolving door between Congress and lobbying, while pointing to the scale of the attacks on El-Sayed as evidence Republicans cannot win the race on policy grounds alone. Nonpartisan groups tracking anti-Muslim rhetoric, including the Center for the Study of Organized Hate, have described the volume of attacks on El-Sayed as unusual even by the standards of a competitive Senate race, a framing that has itself become part of the national story about this contest.

Discussion Questions

What do you look for in a candidate’s biography when deciding who to trust on national security?
Do you find Rogers’s current statements on abortion or his congressional voting record more predictive of how he would act in office?
Have you seen attack ads or social media claims about this race that you weren’t sure were true?
What matters more to you: a candidate’s policy platform, or the tone of their campaign?
Why do you think this race has drawn such an intense national spotlight on campaign rhetoric?
How should voters weigh a candidate’s out-of-state residence against their ties to the state they seek to represent?
Do you think Medicare for All-style proposals are realistic, and why or why not?
How should undecided voters sort through sharply conflicting polls in a race like this one?
What responsibility do national parties have when local candidates face attacks based on religion or ethnicity?
Imagine you are an undecided Michigan voter. What one piece of information would most change your mind?