This briefing reflects reporting and polling available as of September 26, 2026. Candidates, endorsements and polling can change before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Why This Race Matters
Texas’ 15th Congressional District is one of the clearest tests of South Texas’ recent political realignment. Republican Monica De La Cruz flipped the seat in 2022 and won comfortably in 2024 as the Rio Grande Valley moved toward Republicans. Texas then redrew the district again before the 2026 election. President Donald Trump would have carried the current configuration by about 18 points in 2024, yet several 2026 polls show Democrat Bobby Pulido running competitively. Cook moved the race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on September 25.
The Race
De La Cruz is seeking a third term. Pulido, a longtime Tejano musician and South Texas businessman, won the March Democratic primary with about 68 percent of the vote. De La Cruz was unopposed for the Republican nomination. The district stretches from Hidalgo County north through a large rural area toward the San Antonio region, creating a mix of Rio Grande Valley communities, agricultural areas and counties that have historically voted more Republican.
The public polls reviewed for this briefing lean toward Pulido, but they are limited and several have Democratic sponsors. A May Applecart poll for WelcomePAC found Pulido at 48 percent and De La Cruz at 46 percent. A Democratic-sponsored Normington Petts survey in July found Pulido ahead 51 to 45. A Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters conducted in August found Pulido at 50 percent and De La Cruz at 45 percent. Earlier 2025 polling had De La Cruz ahead. The small number of recent independent surveys means the exact state of the race remains uncertain.
The Candidates
Monica De La Cruz, Republican: De La Cruz was first elected in 2022 and was the first Republican and first Latina to represent the district. Her campaign focuses on border security, agriculture, lower taxes, domestic energy, federal spending and protection of Social Security and Medicare. In Congress she has worked on South Texas water issues and telehealth access and supported the major Republican tax-and-spending law enacted in 2025.
Bobby Pulido, Democrat: Pulido is an Edinburg native, small-business owner and award-winning Tejano singer who studied political science before beginning his music career. He describes himself as culturally conservative but politically Democratic and has tried to emphasize South Texas identity over national party labels. His platform focuses on lowering household costs, small-business growth, healthcare access, agriculture and an immigration system that combines border enforcement with expanded legal pathways.
Top Issues
Healthcare: Healthcare has become one of the most heavily advertised issues in the race. Pulido criticizes De La Cruz for voting for the 2025 Republican budget law, which includes large reductions in projected federal Medicaid spending over the next decade. De La Cruz points to the law’s rural-health grant fund and to telehealth legislation she sponsored that became law. The disagreement is partly over whether targeted rural funding offsets broader reductions in Medicaid growth and insurance subsidies.
Immigration and border security: De La Cruz supports Remain in Mexico, expanded border infrastructure, E-Verify and stronger enforcement. Pulido also says the border should be secured and trafficking stopped, but argues that the system needs more legal pathways and policies designed around the economic realities of border communities.
Cost of living: Pulido emphasizes corporate pricing, small-business costs, wages and healthcare. De La Cruz emphasizes federal spending, taxes, regulation and energy production. Both present themselves as small-business advocates.
Agriculture and water: Agriculture remains economically important across the district. De La Cruz has highlighted efforts to pressure Mexico to meet water-delivery obligations and says regulations and trade barriers can hurt farmers. Pulido supports open markets, agricultural infrastructure and policies intended to stabilize farm and ranch costs.
Evidence Check
Pulido claim: De La Cruz voted for major Medicaid cuts. Check: De La Cruz voted for the 2025 Republican tax-and-spending law. Independent health-policy analyses estimate that the law reduces projected federal Medicaid spending substantially over ten years. Republicans argue that the changes target improper enrollment, work requirements and program growth rather than benefits for eligible patients. Both descriptions capture different parts of the law.
Pulido claim: South Texas residents struggle with healthcare affordability. Check: The Rio Grande Valley has high uninsured rates and lower household incomes than many parts of Texas, making affordability a documented regional concern. Pulido has said he personally travels to Mexico for medical care because of cost, an anecdote that illustrates his argument but does not by itself measure the district’s overall experience.
De La Cruz claim: she has expanded telehealth access. Check: Provisions based on her SPEAK Act became law as part of a broader spending package. They direct federal health officials to develop guidance for improving telehealth access for patients with limited English proficiency. That is a concrete policy achievement, although it is narrower than the overall healthcare debate in the race.
De La Cruz claim: stricter border enforcement is necessary for public safety. Check: Border enforcement and drug trafficking are genuine federal responsibilities, but research does not support treating immigration status itself as a reliable indicator of criminality. The policy dispute concerns which enforcement tools are effective and how they affect legal residents, asylum seekers, businesses and mixed-status families.
Supporter Voices
Pulido’s celebrity gives the race an unusual form of grassroots visibility. At one Edinburg quinceañera, local resident Janie Sáenz told the Texas Tribune that Pulido’s music had been “a major part” of her family’s life. The DCCC and centrist Blue Dog PAC also back Pulido, describing him as a culturally rooted South Texas candidate who emphasizes practical problem solving.
De La Cruz has endorsements from President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott. In a September endorsement message, Trump called her a “champion for law and order” and highlighted border security. Her campaign also cites support from the National Border Patrol Council and local law-enforcement figures. These endorsements show the coalitions behind each candidate but do not establish broader voter opinion.
How This Race Is Being Framed
Republicans frame De La Cruz as evidence that South Texas’ movement toward the GOP is durable and argue that her record on border security, agriculture and federal investment matches the district. Democrats frame Pulido as a culturally familiar, moderate challenger who can reconnect with Hispanic and rural voters who moved away from the party. Pulido has deliberately campaigned at quinceañeras, ranch events and in northern counties where Democrats previously invested little. The contest therefore mixes national questions about the House majority with a local argument over what South Texas political identity now looks like.
Related Links
- Cook Political Report House ratings
- Texas Tribune race update
- Bobby Pulido issues
- Monica De La Cruz issues
- Texas Tribune on healthcare
- TX-15 public polling
Discussion Questions
- Why has South Texas become more politically competitive?
- How much should cultural identity matter in choosing a representative?
- Which healthcare argument in this race is more important to investigate?
- How should border security and legal immigration reform fit together?
- What economic policies would most help small businesses in South Texas?
- How should Congress address agricultural water shortages?
- Does celebrity help or hurt a first-time political candidate?
- How much should voters focus on a candidate’s party versus local positions?
- What are the limitations of the current TX-15 polling?
- Imagine you live in TX-15. What question would you ask both candidates?
