This briefing reflects reporting and polling available as of October 1, 2026. Candidates, endorsements and polling can change before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Why This Race Matters
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) is in a competitive race against independent Dan Osborn, a former union leader who says he will caucus with neither party. Nebraska backed Donald Trump by more than 20 points in 2024, Newsweek reported, and no Democrat is on the ballot. With Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and Democrats needing a net gain of four seats for control, an Osborn win would matter well beyond Nebraska.
The Race
Ricketts, governor from 2015 to 2023, was appointed to the Senate in 2023 after Ben Sasse resigned and won a 2024 special election, according to Nebraska Public Media. Osborn ran against Sen. Deb Fischer in 2024 and lost by less than seven points.
Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank later withdrew, part of a pattern we covered in South Dakota, and Democrats in the state have largely coalesced around Osborn, Newsweek reported. Republicans hold a large registration edge: 619,984 registered Republicans, 327,935 Democrats and 282,473 nonpartisan voters as of September.
Public polling is thin, and Newsweek noted that most public surveys are Osborn internals. A SurveyUSA poll of 503 likely voters taken September 8 to 13 had Osborn ahead 46% to 42%, with a 6.4-point margin of error, while Wedgewood Polls’ September 16 survey of 500 likely voters had Ricketts ahead 52% to 48%, according to 270toWin. Impact Research, a Democratic firm, found the two tied at 47% in August.
Forecasters split. The Cook Political Report has the race at Likely Republican. The two September polls above average out to a 47% tie. RealClearPolitics’s Senate map lists Nebraska as a Toss Up.
The Candidates
Pete Ricketts (R) defends tariffs as a way to even out trade with countries that tax U.S. goods more heavily, credits the 2025 tax law for putting money back in family budgets, and says Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. President Trump is campaigning for him and is scheduled to rally in Grand Island next Monday, October 5, Newsweek reported.
Dan Osborn (I) is a former labor leader who says he plans to remain an independent and would caucus with neither party, Newsweek reported. He supports targeted tariffs but wants Congress, not the president, in control of them and of war powers, backs guardrails on data centers near the Ogallala Aquifer, and says the 2025 law went too far on Medicaid.
Three other candidates are on the ballot, The Downballot reported: Chuck Conboy of the America First Party, Robin Richards of the Nebraska Working People Party, and Mike Marvin of Legal Marijuana NOW, who suspended his campaign and endorsed Osborn but remains listed. Both new parties formed this year, and the Downballot notes they could draw voters who dislike Ricketts but are not sold on Osborn. SurveyUSA showed 4% preferring another candidate, below the 5% level at which this site gives third-party candidates full treatment.
Top Issues
Prices and tariffs. At the state fair debate, Ricketts said tax cuts put money back in family budgets, while Osborn said some tariffs can work but should be controlled by Congress. The two agreed that the administration’s 90-day waiver for imported ground beef would hurt ranchers, and Ricketts said he urged Trump toward long-term fixes such as expanding the cattle herd.
The Iran war and farm costs. Ricketts said sanctions, port blockades and other pressure should stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Osborn said a row-crop farmer told him fertilizer cost $50,000 more than before the war, and he argued that only Congress can declare war. See our coverage of the ceasefire breakdown and talks.
Money and independence. Each candidate accuses the other of serving donors. Ricketts says Osborn is funded by out-of-state interests and would side with Democrats, while Osborn says Washington is rigged by wealth and party bosses.
Immigration and ICE. Ricketts touts his vote for the 2025 law that raised ICE’s budget, while Osborn calls the increase wasteful spending, the Nebraska Examiner reported. Both praise Trump for securing the border and criticize the Biden administration’s record.
Evidence Check
Claim (Ricketts): Osborn is “Democrat Dan,” a liberal who would hand control of the Senate to Democrats. Check: Mixed. Osborn is on the ballot as an independent and told CNN in August that he plans to remain one, Newsweek reported. The Downballot, citing a news report, says he told an event audience that if his approach failed there is one party he would caucus with and, pressed on which, answered “Not Pete Ricketts’ party.” He also has Democratic support and faces no Democratic opponent. Whether he would caucus with Democrats is a prediction this article cannot verify.
Claim (Ricketts): Osborn is funded by out-of-state interests. Check: Partly supported, and the charge cuts both ways. Federal Election Commission data cited by Nebraska Public Media show about 37% of Ricketts’s campaign dollars came from Nebraskans versus 17% of Osborn’s, and Ricketts had $6.9 million in cash on hand at the end of June to Osborn’s $2.4 million. Osborn says he does not work with the super PACs raising money in his name. The Downballot reported that allies of each side had spent about $3 million before a group called Cornhusker Majority entered the race. Our guide to campaign funding explains how outside spending works.
Claim (Ricketts and Osborn on immigration): Ricketts says Osborn would support a path to citizenship for people in the country illegally, while Osborn says he supports strong border security. Check: Osborn denied the citizenship claim at the debate, and this article could not locate a statement from him supporting a path to citizenship in the sources reviewed. The Nebraska Examiner reports leaked recordings in which he called the border wall a “symbol of racism” at a private July meeting and said he would be politically damaged if he embraced abolishing ICE. He says the clips lack context and has said publicly that he supports border security and ICE’s basic mission.
Claim (Osborn): Had he beaten Fischer in 2024, he could have stopped the 2025 tax-and-spending law’s Medicaid cuts. Check: The arithmetic holds in part. CBS News reported the Senate passed the bill 51 to 50, with Vice President Vance breaking a tie after all but three Republicans voted yes, so one more no vote would have defeated that version. Whether that would have produced a different law or none is speculation. This article did not independently verify the trillion-dollar Medicaid figure Osborn cited; CBS reports the Congressional Budget Office estimated nearly 12 million more Americans would lose coverage.
Supporter Voices
The reporting this article reviewed offered mostly candidate, party and campaign voices rather than rank-and-file supporters, and this article could not locate Nebraska voters quoted by name on either side.
Ricketts: Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre called him “a proven business leader and public servant,” Newsweek reported, as Trump prepares to campaign for him.
Osborn: In his debate opening he said Washington has “rigged the game” with wealth and accused Ricketts of benefiting from it, Nebraska Public Media reported. He answered the Trump rally announcement by saying Ricketts is asking party bosses to save the election for him, according to Newsweek.
How This Race Is Being Framed
Ricketts’s campaign frames Osborn as a Democrat in disguise. Ricketts called him “Democrat Dan” about 25 times at the debate, according to Nebraska Public Media, while the Omaha World-Herald counted at least 40, the Downballot reported. The two counts conflict, and this article did not resolve them.
Osborn frames the race as working people against wealth and party control, and says he is running on the platform Trump ran on in 2024: no forever wars, standing up to China, lower grocery costs and a secure border.
Kevin Smith, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln political scientist, told Newsweek that a presidential visit to a state Trump won easily may signal a tough environment for Republicans. Whether clearing the field for an independent works in a two-way race is untested, as our South Dakota report noted. The same ballot includes an open Omaha-area House seat, covered in our Nebraska 2nd District briefing.
Related Links
- Trump to campaign in Nebraska as GOP faces close Senate race in red state (Newsweek)
- Money, power take center stage during Ricketts and Osborn’s State Fair debate (Nebraska Public Media)
- Nebraska Senate race has seen tough talk and shifts on immigration (Nebraska Examiner)
- U.S. Senate voter guide: Meet the candidates in the rollercoaster race (Nebraska Public Media)
- Pete Ricketts, Dan Osborn go head to head in Nebraska U.S. Senate debate (Flatwater Free Press)
- Morning Digest: Republicans steer cash to Nebraska’s Senate race (The Downballot, a Democratic-leaning elections newsletter)
Discussion Questions
- Have you ever voted for someone outside the two major parties? What led you to that choice?
- Should a party step aside in a race to help a candidate who might win?
- Does the label “Democrat Dan” tell you anything useful about Osborn?
- Should private remarks, like leaked recordings, count as much as public statements?
- Both candidates said the beef import waiver would hurt ranchers. Why might they still disagree so sharply elsewhere?
- How much should a candidate’s personal wealth matter to voters?
- Should Congress, rather than the president, control tariffs?
- Why would a president campaign in a state he won by more than 20 points?
- Is it fair that one small state’s race could decide control of the Senate?
- Imagine you are a Nebraska rancher. What question would you ask both candidates?
