Alaska Governor 2026: One Democrat, Three Republicans

Why This Race Matters

Alaska is choosing a new governor from a field of one Democrat and three Republicans, and the Democrat, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, leads the public general election polling this briefing located. Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited. A Kreiss-Tomkins win would make him the state’s first Democratic governor in nearly 25 years, in a state that backed Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024. The result may turn on whether Republican voters rank more than one Republican under ranked choice voting, a system that is itself on the November ballot.

The Race

Alaska uses a nonpartisan top-four primary followed by a ranked choice general election. In the August 18 primary, Kreiss-Tomkins finished first with 22.5% and fellow Democrat Tom Begich was second with 20.8%, ahead of Republicans Bernadette Wilson (10%), Dave Bronson (8.1%) and Treg Taylor (7.3%). Begich withdrew on August 28, endorsed Kreiss-Tomkins and said data showed a Democrat was likely to win if only one appeared on the ballot. Begich is the uncle of Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III. The withdrawal left one Democrat facing three Republicans whose primary support was split across a large Republican field.

Taylor, who finished fifth, moved into the fourth ballot slot, and then his place became its own fight. The state campaign finance watchdog recommended against certifying him because he had not disclosed the names of his tenants as required. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom declined to certify him on August 31, and his running mate, Candi English, took his spot. Four days later Dahlstrom put Taylor back on the ballot, citing a state Department of Law review that identified discrepancies in candidates’ financial filings. The review has not been released publicly, and this article could not find a pending court challenge to Taylor’s place on the ballot.

Ranked choice voting is now the central strategic problem for Republicans. Wilson, the top Republican finisher, has repeatedly urged Bronson and Taylor to drop out, arguing that three Republicans split the vote. Bronson and Taylor have declined and are urging voters to rank all the Republicans. Wilson says that plan will fail because Republican voters have shown an unwillingness to rank more than one candidate. For a primer on how counting and rule fights work, see our explainer on how elections work.

Analysts point to 2022 as the template. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III together drew roughly 60% of the first-round vote in Alaska’s U.S. House race that year, but thousands of Begich voters did not rank Palin, and Democrat Mary Peltola won, as Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik noted.

The most detailed general election poll is an AARP survey conducted in early September by Republican-aligned Fabrizio Ward and Democratic-aligned Impact Research. It put Kreiss-Tomkins at 40% in the first round, Wilson at 20%, Bronson at 14% and Taylor at 7%, with 18% undecided. In a ranked choice simulation, Kreiss-Tomkins led Wilson by 10 points in the final round, largely because many Republican voters did not rank every Republican. The pollsters cautioned that the undecided voters lean right, favoring Trump by more than 30 points. An aggregator also lists a late September Cygnal survey with Kreiss-Tomkins ahead, but this article could not locate the release to confirm its format.

Forecasters differ on how favorable the race is for Kreiss-Tomkins. Sabato’s Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report both rate it a Toss-up, while Nate Silver’s model gives Kreiss-Tomkins better than an 80% chance and prediction markets also favor him, according to Alaska Public Media’s reporting. Kondik says the opening reflects national conditions, such as the president’s party typically losing support in midterms, and Democrats consolidating behind one candidate.

Outside money is arriving on both sides. The Republican Governors Association gave about $1.6 million to a new group, Kodiak PAC, to boost Republicans, while a group called Forward Frontier for JKT took in more than $1.3 million from the Democratic Governors Association, Democratic Action and the union AFSCME, according to Alaska Public Media. The Forward Frontier group is hosting a website urging Alaskans to leave Republicans off their ranked choice ballots. A third group, Putting Alaskans First, has raised nearly $1 million, largely from union political arms, to support Kreiss-Tomkins and oppose the three Republicans. None of the groups had reported spending when that story ran. This article could not locate fundraising totals for all four candidates after the October 5 reporting deadline, so it omits candidate-level figures rather than print a lopsided comparison.

Ranked choice itself is on the ballot. Ballot Measure 2 would repeal the 2020 measure that brought ranked choice voting to state elections, and it would also remove campaign disclosure rules, including disclosure of out-of-state donations. The Alaska Republican Party is campaigning for repeal even as its candidates urge voters to use the system, a tension that complicates the party’s pitch. President Trump urged Alaskans in April to vote for repeal, but as of the last coverage this briefing found, on September 23, he had not endorsed a candidate for governor.

The Candidates

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (Democrat)

Kreiss-Tomkins represented Sitka and rural Southeast Alaska in the Legislature and runs on a platform similar to Begich’s, arguing he is the more electable of the two Democrats because he has won in a district that voted for Trump. His running mate is Zac Johnson, an independent on the Anchorage Assembly. He proposes more state education funding, new state revenue and a moratorium on new data centers, and he has said he would work across the aisle. He has pledged to put Republicans in his cabinet.

Bernadette Wilson (Republican)

Wilson is a conservative activist and garbage-hauling business owner running for office for the first time, and she was the top Republican finisher in the primary. Large Permanent Fund dividends are the centerpiece of her campaign, and she argues lawmakers should pay them under the formula in state law. She opposes ranked choice voting, wants to shrink state government and has urged her Republican rivals to withdraw. Her running mate is former state Senate minority leader Mike Shower.

Dave Bronson (Republican)

Bronson, a former Anchorage mayor, has also said he would push for large dividends, but he has acknowledged that paying them under the state-law formula would be practically impossible without a significant increase in state revenue. At candidate forums he has proposed small nuclear power plants for rural Alaska and more Cook Inlet drilling, and he has said he would live in the governor’s mansion in Juneau during the legislative session. He has described his top priority as making sure Alaska’s next governor is a Republican, and he has declined to withdraw.

Treg Taylor (Republican)

Taylor was Alaska’s attorney general from 2021 to 2025. At candidate forums he has backed a long-range plan to expand the state ferry system and a constitutional limit on Permanent Fund spending, but he did not endorse Kreiss-Tomkins’s idea of borrowing money to build energy projects. He skipped an October 7 forum hosted by the Juneau Chamber of Commerce because of scheduling conflicts, according to organizers. His running mate is Candi English, who briefly replaced him on the ballot.

Top Issues

The Permanent Fund dividend and the budget. Wilson and Bronson frame the dividend as an obligation, but state law caps the annual draw from the fund at 5% of its value, and the last formula-based dividend was paid in 2015. At a September forum, Kreiss-Tomkins, Bronson and Taylor each supported restructuring the fund to limit spending, while Wilson put the dividend first. Kreiss-Tomkins would also rewrite the dividend formula and pass new revenue.

Taxes and oil. Wilson says Kreiss-Tomkins would raise oil and gas taxes, and he did not back away from taxes at a September forum. One idea under discussion would extend the state corporate income tax to privately held oil and gas companies, which do not pay it now. Kreiss-Tomkins said he would put forward a balanced budget and acknowledged “a point of respectful disagreement” with Wilson on it.

Schools and energy. Kreiss-Tomkins wants more education funding and says public education money should go only to public schools, a point of difference with the two Republicans at a September forum. On energy, Bronson wants small nuclear plants in rural Alaska, which Kreiss-Tomkins opposed, while Kreiss-Tomkins proposes borrowing to build energy projects, an idea Taylor did not endorse. The data center question is national: New York has ordered a moratorium, and Kreiss-Tomkins has proposed one for Alaska. This article could not locate polling on which issues Alaska voters rank highest.

Evidence Check

Claim (Begich and Kreiss-Tomkins): A lone Democrat on the ballot is likely to win. Check: The AARP poll supports a lead, not a lock. Kreiss-Tomkins is at 40% in the first round with 18% undecided, and the undecided lean right, so the 10-point final-round margin could narrow. Forecasters who rate the race a Toss-up are signaling similar uncertainty.

Claim (Wilson): Kreiss-Tomkins will raise oil and gas taxes. Check: He did not deny it, and he has discussed extending corporate income tax to privately held oil and gas companies. The reporting this article reviewed did not specify the size or design of any increase.

Claim (Wilson): The state can pay formula-based dividends because “the money is there.” Check: This is disputed. State law caps the annual draw at 5% of the fund, and Bronson, who also wants large dividends, acknowledges the formula is impractical without new revenue. Lawmakers say a statutory dividend would drain the fund, and Wilson points to the state constitution and argues Alaskans own the resource.

Claim (Wilson): Bronson and Taylor should quit so Republicans do not split the vote. Check: The AARP simulation shows Kreiss-Tomkins winning even with Wilson as the top Republican, which supports her concern. The 2022 result shows the outcome depends on whether voters rank every Republican. This article could not locate polling on whom Bronson and Taylor supporters would rank second.

Claim (Bronson and Taylor): Republicans can win by ranking all three Republican candidates. Check: It is arithmetically possible, but the AARP poll found many Republican voters do not rank every Republican, and the Alaska Republican Party is also campaigning to repeal the system.

Claim (Dahlstrom): Many candidates had questionable financial filings, so Taylor should stay on the ballot. Check: The review behind that claim has not been made public, so it could not be verified. The watchdog’s separate finding that Taylor did not disclose his tenants’ names is a distinct issue.

Supporter Voices

Reporting this briefing found offers mostly candidates, party committees and consultants rather than local supporters, with one undecided voter as the exception.

Backing Kreiss-Tomkins. Begich said he and Kreiss-Tomkins share priorities on state revenue, schools and living costs that the Republican candidates do not. A Democratic Governors Association spokesperson said the group is proud to help “ensure JKT is elected governor this November.” Public employee and teacher unions are funding a separate group that plans radio ads for him.

Backing a Republican. Bronson said “we have no intention of stepping aside,” arguing that voters who did not choose the top finisher deserve a candidate who represents them. Wilson called the AARP poll a “stark warning” about electing a Democrat. Allen Bell, an undecided Juneau voter, said he will probably rank Taylor first but is disappointed in the lack of choice.

How This Race Is Being Framed

Democrats frame the race as a rare chance for change after Dunleavy’s two terms, and the party consolidated behind one candidate. Republicans split between two frames. Wilson presents herself as the Republican primary winner and says her rivals are spoiling the party’s chance, while Bronson and Taylor frame their campaigns as representing voters who chose someone else and say Republicans can win by ranking everyone.

Ranked choice voting is also a partisan fight within the race. Republicans criticize the system while depending on it, and Democrats benefit from a vote split that the system was designed to reduce. The same ballot carries the Senate race between Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, which we cover in our Alaska Senate briefing, and Wilson has argued the governor’s race could influence it. This article could not confirm whether Dunleavy or the Alaska Republican Party has endorsed a candidate. Alaska Public Media and Alaska’s News Source scheduled their governor’s debate for 7 p.m. Alaska time on October 8, and this briefing does not cover it. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes on November 3, ranked choice tabulation follows.

Discussion Questions

Have you ever voted in a ranked choice election? If so, how did it feel to rank your choices?
Does ranked choice voting make elections fairer, or does it make them more confusing?
Wilson says Bronson and Taylor should drop out so Republicans do not split the vote. Do you agree?
Tom Begich left the race to avoid splitting the Democratic vote. Is that a smart use of the system or a problem with it?
What matters more in a governor’s election: party label or a candidate’s plan for the state budget?
Should the size of the Permanent Fund dividend follow a fixed formula, or should lawmakers decide it each year?
Why might a state that backed Trump by 13 points have a competitive governor’s race?
How does the finding that undecided voters lean Republican change the way you read the 10-point lead?
Alaskans will vote on repealing ranked choice voting while using it to pick a governor. What are the pros and cons of that timing?
Imagine you are the lieutenant governor and must decide whether to certify a candidate with a disclosure problem. What would you do, and why?

Alaska Governor 2026: Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Three Republicans