This briefing reflects reporting and polling available as of October 21, 2026. Candidates, endorsements and polling can change before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Why This Race Matters
Western Montana has produced the state’s closest federal race in years. Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke is not running again, which leaves an open seat that both parties now treat as winnable. Montana Free Press reports that a result as tight as its poll suggests would be Montana’s closest U.S. House race since 1992. Control of the House could turn on a few seats like this one.
The Race
Zinke has held the seat since it was created for the 2022 election. He said in March that he would not seek another term, citing health problems. Republicans nominated Aaron Flint, a radio host and retired Army officer who has Trump’s backing. Democrats nominated Sam Forstag, a former smokejumper and union leader. Libertarian Nick Sheedy is also on the ballot. Voting runs from October 6 through November 3.
Three September polls found a near tie. A Montana Free Press review of the polls lists them: a Rutgers Eagleton survey for the news outlet had Flint at 42% and Forstag at 41%, with Sheedy at 5% and a 6-point margin of error. Public Policy Polling, sponsored by a committee that invests in Democrats in Republican-leaning districts, had Forstag at 45% and Flint at 43%. American Pulse Research and Polling, sponsored by NonStop Local News, had Flint at about 46% and Forstag at 45%. The sponsored polls leave open the question of partisan lean, and only the Rutgers Eagleton poll met the New York Times’ standard for select pollsters.
Forecasters moved the race toward Democrats this fall. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both shifted it from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, while Fox News rates it a toss-up, according to the Daily Montanan. The Silver Bulletin’s FLIPR model gave Flint a 61.2% chance of winning as of the Montana Free Press review. A model’s probability is not a forecaster’s rating, and this article could not verify Inside Elections’ current rating. Trump carried the district by roughly 11 to 12 points in 2024, depending on the source, and this article could not reconcile the two figures.
Outside money is flowing in. The No Going Back PAC sent about $743,000 of mailers against Forstag, most of them after September 11. This article could not locate comparable fundraising totals for both candidates, so it does not report partial figures.
The Candidates
Aaron Flint (Republican). Flint is a retired Army lieutenant colonel with more than 20 years of service and deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and the Horn of Africa. He is the former host of the radio show “Montana Talks.” He backs the Trump administration’s approach to immigration and wants more deportations. He supports a balanced-budget amendment and a congressional stock-trading ban. Trump was scheduled to hold a rally for him in Kalispell on October 14. In the Rutgers Eagleton poll, 31% of voters who knew him viewed him favorably and 32% unfavorably.
Sam Forstag (Democrat). Forstag is a former wildland smokejumper and a former union leader for U.S. Forest Service workers. He says he entered the race after the federal government laid off his colleagues. He is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the Blue Dog Caucus and six Montana Republicans, NBC Montana reports. In the same poll, 41% of voters who knew him viewed him favorably and 19% unfavorably.
Nick Sheedy (Libertarian). Sheedy polled at about 5% in two surveys, which meets the site’s 5% threshold for full treatment. He did not respond to NBC Montana’s interview request, and this article could not locate his positions or background. In a race this close, his share is larger than the gap between the two main candidates in the Rutgers Eagleton poll.
Top Issues
Housing. Forstag says he wants a larger federal role in building supply, a ban on corporate home ownership and limits on private-equity purchases of mobile-home parks. Flint blames regulation and property taxes and backs Trump’s proposal to bar Wall Street firms from buying family homes. Both candidates say they support a ban on corporate ownership of family homes.
The Iran war and prices. Forstag opposes the war and calls for diplomacy. Flint says he wants the war ended quickly and opposes “forever wars.” Forstag tied the war to high diesel prices at the debate.
Public lands and data centers. Forstag says public lands face a “full-scale assault.” On data centers, Forstag wants federal law requiring AI companies to pay for the power they use. Flint opposes data centers that raise power rates or use too much water but opposes federal control over where they are built.
Trade and agriculture. Both candidates oppose tariff-free beef imports. Forstag wants Congress to approve tariffs. This article could not locate Flint’s position on that point.
Health care. NBC Montana’s comparison did not cover health care, and this article could not locate either candidate’s current health care plan.
Evidence Check
Flint: Forstag is an out-of-state liberal lobbyist. Flint repeated the charge at the October 13 debate and called his opponent “phony Forstag.” Check: The Daily Montanan reports that Forstag registered as a state lobbyist in 2021 and 2023 for the Montana ACLU and for clients including the cities of Missoula and Bozeman. Those clients are Montana organizations. This article could not verify the out-of-state claim.
Flint: He has disagreed with Trump on the Iran war, beef imports and Job Corps cuts. Check: NBC Montana reports this as Flint’s own description. This article could not independently verify it, though his stated positions on those three issues match the claim.
Forstag: Public lands face a “full-scale assault” after federal layoffs. Check: NBC Montana attributes the statement to Forstag, and this article could not verify the scale of the layoffs or their effect on Montana’s public lands. The statement is a characterization, not a measured fact.
Forstag: A “needless, endless war” is driving diesel prices up. Check: This article could not verify a direct link between the war and Montana diesel prices. The claim is plausible but is the candidate’s argument.
Supporter Voices
This article could not locate quotes from named local supporters of either candidate, so it does not attribute any. The reporting available is mostly national and institutional: Trump’s endorsement and visit for Flint, and endorsements from Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez for Forstag. Forstag’s backers also include six Montana Republicans, whom this article could not identify by name. This section therefore leans on national voices, which may not reflect how district voters see the race.
How This Race Is Being Framed
Flint describes the race as “common sense versus crazy,” casting his opponent as a liberal lobbyist and himself as a veteran with a plain-spoken record. Forstag presents himself as a working-class public lands defender who will oppose his own party when necessary and who is willing to hold in-person town halls. Flint did not commit to town halls and proposed a live podcast instead.
The debate itself was rough. Moderators had to step in seven times to stop the candidates from talking over each other, according to the Daily Montanan. Whether the personal tone moves undecided voters is untested.
Related Links
- Flint, Forstag trade barbs during debate for Montana’s open Congressional seat (Daily Montanan)
- Poll fishing in Montana’s hottest House race (Montana Free Press)
- Forstag, Flint lay out policy positions ahead of election (NBC Montana)
- Iowa’s 1st District: Bohannan vs. Miller-Meeks
- Common Ground: Banning Congress From Trading Stocks
- The US-Iran War: Ceasefire Breakdown, Renewed Strikes, and a Last-Ditch Push for Talks
- How U.S. Campaigns Are Funded: Donations, PACs, and Outside Spending
Discussion Questions
- How much should a candidate’s military service matter when you vote for Congress?
- Does a candidate’s past work as a lobbyist change how you see his claims about outsiders?
- Why do you think both candidates support a ban on corporate ownership of family homes while disagreeing about how to lower housing costs?
- Should House candidates be required to hold in-person town halls?
- How would you weigh a poll sponsored by a political group against one sponsored by a news outlet?
- What should a Libertarian candidate at 5% mean for how the two major candidates campaign?
- Do national endorsements from figures like Trump or Sanders help or hurt a candidate in a district like this one?
- Should Congress approve tariffs, or should the president set them?
- What makes a debate useful for voters when the candidates talk over each other?
- Imagine you are advising a moderate voter in western Montana who is undecided. Which three questions would you ask before deciding, and why?
