This briefing reflects reporting and polling available as of October 21, 2026. Candidates, endorsements and polling can change before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Why This Race Matters
Montana has an open Senate seat, and the main challenger is an independent rather than a Democrat. Republican Kurt Alme leads in most public polling, but a split opposition vote and a single poll showing the independent ahead have kept the race in the news. Montana voted for Donald Trump by 20 points in 2024, which makes any competitive contest unusual. The outcome also matters beyond the state, because a senator who refuses to join either caucus could hold leverage in a closely divided chamber.
The Race
Sen. Steve Daines withdrew from his reelection bid on March 5, minutes after Alme filed to run, and endorsed him. Members of both parties criticized the timing, which left Alme with little primary competition. Alme won the Republican primary with about 76% of the vote. Alani Bankhead won the Democratic primary with about 44% in a five-way field. Seth Bodnar entered as an independent on March 4 after resigning as president of the University of Montana.
Public polling mostly shows Alme ahead with the opposition split. A Rutgers Eagleton poll for Montana Free Press taken August 27 to September 7 of 845 registered voters, with a 4.2-point margin of error, found Alme at 38%, Bodnar at 30%, Bankhead at 16% and Libertarian Kyle Austin at 5%. An American Pulse poll sponsored by NonStop Local News in late September had Alme at about 45%, Bodnar at 26% and Bankhead at 19% statewide.
One poll disagrees. A Concord Public Opinion Partners memo dated October 10 showed Bodnar at 37% and Alme at 35%, according to Newsweek. Alme’s campaign called it an outlier. This article could not identify who commissioned it, and earlier polls favorable to Bodnar came from Democratic pollsters who wanted Bankhead to withdraw. Decision Desk HQ’s September forecast gave Alme roughly a 90% chance of winning.
The most recent forecaster ratings this article could verify date from March to May: Cook Political Report at Solid Republican, and Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at Likely Republican. Those may have changed, and this article could not confirm current ratings. Bodnar had raised more than $3.2 million through June, compared with nearly $2 million for Alme and under $60,000 for Bankhead, according to the Flathead Beacon. This article could not locate more recent totals.
The Candidates
Kurt Alme (Republican). Alme served as U.S. attorney for Montana from 2017 to 2020 and again from 2025, and was briefly budget director for Gov. Greg Gianforte. He resigned as U.S. attorney the day Daines left the race, Montana Public Radio reports. Trump, Daines, Sen. Tim Sheehy and Gianforte have endorsed him. He supports Trump’s tariffs and border policy, a bill to withhold congressional pay when no budget passes, term limits and a ban on congressional stock trading. His campaign has been quiet, and he attended only one debate.
Seth Bodnar (independent). Bodnar is a 47-year-old former Green Beret and former General Electric executive. He pledges not to caucus with either party. Former Democratic Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester and former Gov. Steve Bullock back him, and the state Democratic Party chair resigned to endorse him even though the party’s nominee is Bankhead. He opposes the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs, wants to restore expired Affordable Care Act subsidies and backs a coverage option alongside private insurance.
Alani Bankhead (Democrat). Bankhead is a life coach and Air Force veteran. She supports universal health care modeled on TRICARE, a wealth tax and removing the Social Security wage cap. She opposes AI data centers in Montana. Baucus, Tester and former state party leaders urged her to withdraw, and she has refused.
Kyle Austin (Libertarian). Austin owns a pharmacy in Billings and calls himself the only real conservative in the race. He proposes a health care plan he calls “Healthcare 2.0,” for which no written details were available, and supports individual Social Security accounts. The state Libertarian Party disavowed him after the primary, according to Wikipedia’s summary of that result, which this article could not verify elsewhere. He polled at 5% in the Rutgers Eagleton survey.
Top Issues
Health care. Bankhead wants a federal system, Bodnar wants a public option alongside private coverage, and Alme says the Affordable Care Act subsidized insurers and drug companies and wants more price transparency. Bodnar also says he would reverse Medicaid changes from the 2025 budget law.
Public lands. At the October 11 debate, Bodnar said rescinding the federal Roadless Rule could open roughly 6 million acres of Montana land to development. Alme said he would fight to keep public lands public but did not address the rule directly. Austin supports rescinding it.
AI data centers. Bankhead and Bodnar oppose siting them in Montana without strict limits. Alme wants them to be transparent and pay their own way, and Austin calls them necessary for economic and national security.
The Iran war and trade. Bodnar and Bankhead both oppose the war and the tariffs. Alme largely backs Trump’s tariff policy. This article could not locate a detailed Alme position on the Iran war.
Social Security and taxes. Alme says he will not support benefit cuts and points to his tax-cutting record. Bodnar and Bankhead would raise taxes on high earners.
Evidence Check
Alme: “I’m the only candidate up here with a proven record of cutting taxes.” He said this at the October 11 debate. Check: This article could not verify a tax-cutting record for Alme, who has not held elected office and spent less than a year as the governor’s budget director.
Alme: His opponents would return the country to Biden-era policies, including open borders. Check: Bodnar and Bankhead oppose Trump’s immigration crackdown, but reporting reviewed here shows neither proposing open borders. The charge is a characterization of their positions.
Bodnar’s campaign: Alme was picked by Washington, not by Montana voters. Check: Daines withdrew minutes after Alme filed and endorsed him, and Trump and Gianforte also backed him. Alme still won the primary with about 76% against two lesser-known candidates, so voters did ratify him.
Bodnar: Rescinding the Roadless Rule could open about 6 million acres to development. Check: Austin’s support for rescinding the rule is on the record, but this article could not verify the acreage figure.
Bankhead: Ending the Iran war could help pay for universal health care. Check: This article could not locate a cost estimate for either the war’s end or her plan, so the claim is unquantified.
Supporter Voices
This article could not locate quotes from named rank-and-file supporters of any candidate, so this section relies on institutional voices. On the Republican side, Carl Malesich, chair of the Beaverhead County Republican Party, called Alme a strong conservative but told the Bozeman Daily Chronicle the process “left a little bit of a sour taste.” For Bodnar, the named backers are Baucus, Tester, Bullock and the state Democratic chair, and Planned Parenthood and several large unions also support him. This article located no named supporters of Bankhead or Austin. The record is thin and skews toward party officials.
How This Race Is Being Framed
Alme’s campaign presents him as a proven public servant who will deliver results and portrays his opponents as a return to the previous administration’s policies. Bodnar’s campaign frames the race as a choice between a Washington pick and an independent who answers only to Montanans, and it has set a goal of pushing Alme below 40%. Bankhead presents herself as independent of party bosses. Democrats are divided, with many leaders backing Bodnar and the party apparatus backing Bankhead.
The central test is whether Democratic voters leave Bankhead for Bodnar in the final weeks. In the Rutgers Eagleton poll, 53% of Democrats backed Bodnar and 41% backed Bankhead, and independents favored Bodnar.
Related Links
- Four candidates face off in chaotic Senate race (Montana Public Radio)
- Montana U.S. Senate candidates square off in debate (News From The States)
- Bodnar pitches independence as the fix for a broken Washington (Flathead Beacon)
- Alaska Senate 2026: Sullivan vs. Peltola Under Ranked Choice
- Common Ground: Banning Congress From Trading Stocks
- Common Ground: Setting Term Limits for Members of Congress
- How U.S. Campaigns Are Funded: Donations, PACs, and Outside Spending
Discussion Questions
- How should voters weigh a candidate’s promise not to caucus with either party?
- Should a party’s nominee stay in a race when the party’s own leaders ask her to withdraw?
- Does it matter that a senator’s replacement was effectively arranged before the primary?
- Why might a poll sponsored by one party show different results from a news outlet poll?
- How much does an independent candidate change the way a Senate race is run?
- Should AI data centers be limited in states with scarce water and rising utility costs?
- What is the right balance between public lands protection and local economic development?
- Do you find an all-government health plan or a public option alongside private insurance more workable, and why?
- Should Congress approve tariffs rather than the president?
- Imagine you are advising a voter who dislikes both parties. What would you want to know about each candidate before they decide?
